Perspective is important. I recently saw the following posted on a Realtor friend’s Facebook page.
Perspective: In 1971 mortgage rates were 7.33%. If you waited to purchase a home until rates went down, you waited until 1993. You would have rented for 22 years. Meanwhile, the value of real estate QUADRUPLED!
I found this information both interesting and somewhat misleading. The assumption is that one should go ahead and purchase now because you might miss out on another period of values quadrupling. There are way too many factors to consider to make this bold of a statement. Since that same period of time, what did wages do? Did they quadruple? Have they quadrupled since then? Since the end of that timeframe have homes quadrupled again? It has been over 22 years since 1993. Is it even possible for home prices to quadruple without serious repercussions to wages and other inflation? Was there a major shift in our economy since 1971 (yes, significant export of manufacturing jobs and an adoption of service jobs and small business)? Are we in a climate now, politically, socially, economically, culturally, that would even allow for a period of tremendous, rapid prosperity?
I understand the point of the post. It is to say that, ultimately, real estate is always a good investment if your time horizon is long enough. And the reality is, a 7.5% interest rate is historically not very high. The difference is the rapidity at which we got to that 7.5% rate and the other things that happened along the way. We doubled (or more) home prices in less than 4 years. We quadrupled interest rates in less than 1 year. Meanwhile, rental rates only went up about 30% and wages didn’t even go up that much. It is difficult to wrap your brain around the speed of all these changes and is completely understandable to turtle up and not do anything. It is also completely understandable to look at your current situation (especially if you bought in 2015-2020) and refuse to participate in the current market and wait it out. BUT, to the post’s point, it is not “dangerous” or “erroneous” to buy now.
My best advice is to talk to someone that has been in the market and continues to educate themselves. That will look at YOUR situation and help you based on you. Not based on the fact that they need a paycheck. I would be honored to be that guy for you.
