Diving Into the Numbers

J. Harmon Home Team
J. Harmon Home Team
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This week’s email will be lots of numbers and commentary on the numbers. It is definitely interesting to dive into how the market feels and what the numerical snapshot is. It feels like we’ve hit a wall. My favorite analogy is of a moving sidewalk at the airport. If you’ve ever gotten on one and walked on it, you get to the end and if feels like a hard stop, even if you are still walking. That’s us. Still walking but we don’t have that conveyor belt under us. Let’s jump into the numbers. 

Parameters–These numbers represent ALL of Rutherford County, all residential property types (single family, townhouse, manufactured, etc.) but understand that the vast majority in Rutherford are single family homes. It also does not break down between price point, size, bedroom count, etc. It includes all. Finally, the numbers are a comparison of this September to last September. So when I say “up ___%” or “down ___%”, that is last month compared to September 2021.

Number of New Listings: Down 1.7% but it rebounded about 3% since April when the rates first went nuts. People are cautiously going into the market after that initial craziness with rates

Number of Pending Sales (new pending in September): Down 3.4%

Number of Closed Sales: Down 8.4%

Number of homes available: Down 42%–we will look at prices next but this stat right here is what is keeping price up

Average Days on Market: Down 18.2%–this is because there are 42% less listings available. In some submarkets, certain types of homes are seeing way higher days on market (townhomes in neighborhoods with new construction for example)

Average Sales Price is up 26.1% over last year at this time.

We are not seeing a back slide in value. We are seeing a hesitation. There is hesitation to list and hesitation to buy. What can’t be measured accurately is the number of active buyers in the market currently. If I had to speculate, I’d say that number is WAY down. If we are seeing pendings down 3.4% in a market with 42% less listings available, then number of buyers is probably down 60% or more. Think about all the buyers in the previous market that tried and tried and didn’t get a home. That has just about dried up. If you want a house now and can qualify for it, you can get it. There is significantly less competition for any single listing and significantly less anxiety about offering over list or all the crazy stuff that had to happen in May of last year to get a contract accepted. Additionally, we are seeing all types of financing back in the market. In Rutherford County for the past couple of years, it was much more difficult to get a VA, THDA or RD loan offer accepted. There were plenty of conventional loans as competitors. Now, we can get these loans with down payment assistance accepted all day long. 

This is a great time to buy. Probably the best we’ve seen in a few years as far as competition and terms go. Yes prices are higher and yes interest rates are higher. Rates are expected to go up some more and who knows where they will stabilize. Prices are expected to continue to rise (just not as quickly as they have been) and I doubt we will see a “bubble pop” any time soon. Also, there is some speculation about a new round of foreclosures. I don’t see that happening. Given the past several years, people are sitting on tremendous equity. There is 0 reason to go to foreclosure. If people get into trouble, they can just sell. 

If you are interested in buying or selling, give me a call. I or my team can help you with solid advice first, followed by swift action to get your goal accomplished. We are always eager to serve.

September 2022.